EXCLUSIVE SURVEY – Europeans 2024: the RN at the top of voting intentions

Contents

“Midterms”
The left slides

Published on November 20, 2023 at 4:57 p.m.Updated November 20, 2023 at 5:17 p.m.

The National Rally (RN) is well ahead in voting intentions for the European elections on June 9. A little more than six months before the deadline, the list led by the president of the party, Jordan Bardella, would obtain 28% of the votes. if the vote took place next Sunday, according to the EuroTrack poll carried out by OpinionWay for “Les Echos” and Classic radio. “The difficulties of the executive benefit the RN,” explains Bruno Jeanbart, vice-president of OpinionWay.

The presidential majority, whose head of list is not yet known, only has 19% of voting intentions. “This is not very surprising because the year 2023 was difficult for the executive with the pension reform and the popularity of Emmanuel Macron and Elisabeth Borne is low,” deciphers Bruno Jeanbart.

“Midterms”

At the start of the campaign, the gap between the RN list and that of Renaissance is 9 points, whereas it was only a small point (23.34% for the RN, 22.42% for the Macronist camp ) on the evening of the last election in 2019.

The RN, which wants to make these elections real “mid-terms” of Emmanuel Macron’s second five-year term, believes that the objective of 30% is achievable, in particular by targeting more executives and business leaders. “Jordan Bardella knows that he must also address France, which is doing well,” notes a relative.

In the well-off categories, the RN is certainly at a lower level (22%) than that which it records within the population as a whole, but it is nevertheless ahead of the list of the majority, which peaks at 20%. Only among those aged 65 and over, the future Macronist list (33%) does better than that of the RN (25%).

The other notable element of this poll is the good performance of the Reconquest list led by Marion Maréchal which, with 7% of voting intentions, reproduces the same score as that of Eric Zemmour in the first round of the presidential election of 2022. Reconquête manages to insert itself into the political landscape and is hot on the heels of Les Républicains. It is an election favorable to Eric Zemmour’s party, even if its clear-cut position on Europe clashes with that of the RN,” notes Bruno Jeanbart.

On the other hand, for Les Républicains (LR), the promised score – 8% – is comparable to that of 2019 (8.5%). If it is higher than that recorded by Valérie Pécresse during the last presidential election (4.8%), it does not allow Eric Ciotti’s party to smile again. “LR is still stuck between the RN, the Renaissance and today the Reconquest,” underlines the investigator.

The left slides

On the left, where all the components of the very sick Nupes are launching the campaign separately, no list really emerges. The Socialist Party (PS) is in the lead with 9% of voting intentions, ahead of Europe Ecologie-Les Verts (8%), La France insoumise (7%) and the Communists (3%). The list of the Radical Left Party is also credited with 3% of the votes.

With 30% of voting intentions in total, the left is at its usual low point and is experiencing no momentum either in relation to the 2019 European elections or in relation to the first round of the 2022 presidential election. is difficult for LFI which is unable to repeat the electoral performances of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. As for the environmentalists, they are much lower than those of 2019 because they have not yet managed to mobilize the young electorate,” notes Bruno Jeanbart.

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