The Minister of the Interior, whose Elysian ambitions are known, plays a major role in the political sequence which opens this Monday, December 11 with the examination in session of the bill on immigration.
It is said that he knows his text “by heart”, that he occupies the room where the debates take place “from 9 a.m. to midnight”, or that he has numerous one-on-one lunches. .. Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin, who has been pushing the controversial immigration bill for almost a year, is playing big in a political sequence where nothing is really decided in advance, and which must begin this Monday, December 11 in the hemicycle. .
The objective of the tenant of Beauvau, who is said to be omnipresent, has not really changed: he hopes, by all means, to see his text adopted without going through box 49.3, the democratic axis for which he is is already declared “very opposed”.
Seduction operation in Nice
So, three days before the examination of the text in session, the Minister of the Interior plays the card of omnipresence: Friday, he went to Nice, on the lands of Eric Ciotti, during an operation seduction which escaped no one. Objective: reach out to the leader of the Republicans with a view to reaching an agreement. Indeed, since the passage of the text in the Law Committee, Éric Ciotti has continued to criticize a bill “full of measures” which will not allow us to regain control of immigration.
We must fight smugglers with absolute firmness. With the immigration bill that I support, smugglers will be criminalized and sentenced to up to 20 years in prison. pic.twitter.com/T0NiuvaiPW
-Gérald DARMANIN (@GDarmanin) December 8, 2023
In this sequence, “Gérald Darmanin plays on his political credibility”, analyzes Benjamin Morel, political scientist and lecturer at the Panthéon Assas, joined by The dispatch. “By putting his stamp on this text, he would gain credit on the right and could thus establish a leadership which would perhaps open the doors of Matignon, or even the Elysée,” judges the political scientist.
But victory is (very) far from being achieved: “At present, it is difficult to imagine how he could gather a majority,” observes Benjamin Morel. According to the political scientist, as it stands, only a 49.3 would allow the highest cop to see his bill accepted. But again, that would be an admission of weakness.
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“A 49.3 would mean he simply failed to muster a majority. However, this is the primary quality of a Prime Minister and a candidate for the Presidency of the Republic,” adds Benjamin Morel, who notes, until now, that the minister’s strategy has not really been effective. fruits.
” Double-dealing “
“Darmanin’s strategy is that of moving to the right, unlike that led by Elisabeth Borne, who rather plays the card of punctual rallying of the LR. For the moment, it seems that Gérald Darmanin’s plan is in failure: we see this with the opposition of the left of the majority, but also with the categorical refusal of LR to come out in favor of the text.
The Republicans, as such, denounced on Tuesday the zigzags of the mayor of Tourcoing: Gérald Darmanin is playing a “double game”, stormed the head of the LR senators, Bruno Retailleau, on BFMTV. The Minister of the Interior, according to him, “cannot say ‘at the same time’” that these two texts (the reworked versions of the Senate then of the Law Committee of the Assembly, Editor’s note) “both suit him », added Bruno Retailleau. .
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By tightening the right, the Minister of the Interior risks leaving feathers. “Getting angry with Bruno Retailleau is not without consequences,” judges Benjamin Morel. “That would make governing with him even more complicated. But on the other hand, what is the alternative? If Gérald Darmanin used 49.3 against part of his majority, especially on such a sensitive subject, he would take the risk of seeing rebels emerge, which would be very detrimental to him. We remember the Macron and El Khomri laws…”