Spain is on the way to a worse scenario than Italy in coronavirus infections

According to official data, Spain has exceeded the number of cases that Italy had at this point in the epidemic and we’re on our way to become the worst scenario in the world after Wuhan and Iran. Over the past week, the idea that the Italian crisis was “the future” of the Spanish one had become spectacularly popular. Far from being an unfounded fear, the passage of time is not only confirming that impression, but is drawing a much worse scenario.

Spanish cases grow faster than Italians

Spain is on the way to a worse scenario than Italy in coronavirus infections

With the data of March 13, Spain has exceeded the number of total cases that Italy had at the same point of the epidemic. We are facing a key moment in the evolution of the coronavirus outbreak because, for the first time, the epidemic Spanish data is separated from the Italian evolution and is heading towards a worse scenario. It is important to bear in mind that this occurs in the number of infected, other figures such as the number of deaths do not seem to experience the same trend. While Italy accumulated 148 deaths, Spain accumulated 120; In other words, we also exceed them per deceased per million, but we are not growing at such a high rate.

Spain is on the way to a worse scenario than Italy in coronavirus infections

As we have explained in recent days, the evolution of an outbreak is closely related to the way in which countries count cases; the number of tests performed is a determining factor, for example. But, if we look at the trend, there are few positive readings of the latest updates of the epidemic. It is true that in this case, the ‘sorpasso’ appears just one day after Health changed the diagnostic criteria of COVID-19 to adapt them to the new reality of uncontrolled community contagion. However, this is something that has been done in all countries: it is something that China did and, more importantly, that Italy did as well.

Spain is on the way to a worse scenario than Italy in coronavirus infections

What’s more, as soon as we look at the demographic context, we realize that the trend can be much more pronounced: Italy has 13 million more inhabitants than Spain. That is, as the days go by, the number of cases per capita in our country grows much faster than in Italy And that, in a context like the current one, is a very worrying scenario.

What is happening in the countries around us?

We have also analyzed the different evolutions (and the measures adopted) of the neighboring countries. Countries in which, in addition, we can find very different approaches from the somewhat earlier measures of Italy or Switzerland to the laissez faire approach, laissez passer of the United Kingdom.

Spain is on the way to a worse scenario than Italy in coronavirus infections

Spain is on the way to a worse scenario than Italy in coronavirus infections

Spain is on the way to a worse scenario than Italy in coronavirus infections

Spain is on the way to a worse scenario than Italy in coronavirus infections

Picture | David monk